Bankruptcy Filings Forecast
What is Bankruptcy Forecast?
Bankruptcy forecast or a prediction is an art that involves the prediction of bankruptcy and various measures of financial distress which public firms may be expected to face in the near future. This complex data analysis involves vast research of finance and accounting.
One of the most popular models for bankruptcy prediction was published by Edward I Altman in 1968 and was known as the Z-score formula for predicting bankruptcy. The Z-score formula uses balance sheet values as well as multiple corporate incomes to get a picture of the financial health of any company and thus helps in predicting the probability of a firm filing bankruptcy within two years.
What affects Bankruptcy?
Fitch’s rating report projects 2016 bankruptcy filings to reduce by 6 – 8% from levels which were observed in 2015. Recession and other negative income shocks and various economic and institutional factors have contributed to the rise in bankruptcy filings. The level of filings is hence, driven by many elements including unemployment, housing environment, consumer indebtedness and interest rate to name a few. This overall decline in the filing of bankruptcy statistics can be supported by the sustained growth of jobs and low jobless claims.
Bankruptcy Filing Statistics
Accountants and economists have been making bankruptcy forecasts for decades. In the United States, personal bankruptcy filings as per the bankruptcy records have had a dynamic history. During the first half of the 20th century, bankruptcy filings averaged 0.15 per 1000 people. Its average annual growth rate subsequently was 2.4 percent. The growth rate of bankruptcies increased during the 1960s, and since 1980, the growth has increased dramatically growing at an average rate of 7.7 percent per year till 2004. Since then the filing rate has been 5.3 per 1000 people.
BEBData is a 40 year old veteran leader in the field of bankruptcy data compilation and a bankruptcy database of over 20 million records. Our accurate and up-to-date bankruptcy list allows us access to information regarding filing dates, discharges and dismissals. With our years of expertise and support, our clients can identify highly responsive bankruptcy leads to help them grow.