National housing market indicators available as of January showed activity in housing markets was mixed. Trends in some of the top indicators for this month include:
- Purchases of new homes increased in December for a third
consecutive month. New single-family home sales rose 2.3 percent
to 616,000 units (SAAR) in December from a pace of 602,000 in
November but were 26.6 percent lower year-over-year (y/y). Note
that monthly data on new home sales tend to be volatile. For all of
2022, new home sales reached 644,000, down 16.5 percent from
771,000 in 2021 and their slowest pace since 2018. (Sources: HUD
and Census Bureau) - Existing home sales fell for the eleventh consecutive month to their
slowest pace since November 2010. The National Association of
REALTORS® (NAR) reported that December sales of existing homes
(including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and
cooperatives) slipped 1.5 percent to 4.02 million units (SAAR) from a
pace of 4.08 million in November and were 34 percent lower y/y. For
all of 2022, existing home sales dropped 17.8 percent to 5.03 million
units from 6.12 million in 2021 and the slowest pace since 2014.
Because existing home sales are based on a closing, December sales
reflect contract signings in October and November. Mortgage rates
have trended down since September, and month-to-month (m/m)
house prices have remained the same or declined in the past several
months—all of which should help to improve demand. Inventories
of existing homes are still lean, however. - New construction of single-family homes rose to their highest level
since August. Single-family housing starts increased 11.3 percent to
909,000 units (SAAR) in December from a revised pace of 817,000
units in November but were 25 percent lower y/y. Multifamily
housing starts (5+ units in a structure), at 463,000 units (SAAR),
fell 18.9 percent m/m and were 16.3 percent lower y/y. Note that
m/m changes in multifamily starts are often volatile. Residential
construction employment was up 3.2 percent y/y; residential
construction costs were down 1.2 percent in December but up 6.9
percent y/y. For all of 2022, total construction of new homes reached
1.553 million units, 3.0 percent lower than in 2021 (1.601 million
units and the strongest pace since 2006). New construction of singlefamily homes fell 10.6 percent, while starts on multifamily homes
rose 14.5 percent in 2022. (Sources: HUD, Census Bureau and BLS) - Annual house price appreciation continued to decelerate in
November, with annual gains ranging from 6.8 to 8.2 percent.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted
purchase-only house price index for November estimated that home
values were down 0.1 percent m/m and rose 8.2 percent y/y, down
from an annual gain of 9.8 percent in October. The non-seasonally
adjusted CoreLogic Case-Shiller® 20-City Home Price Index, posted
a 0.8 percent m/m decline in home values in November and a
6.8 percent y/y increase, down from an 8.6-percent annual gain in
October. Mortgage financing has become more expensive as the
Federal Reserve raises interest rates, a process that began in April.
The annual growth rate of house prices peaked in the spring of 2022
and may well continue to decelerate. The home price data for both
indices are based on real estate sales contracts signed in September
and October with subsequent closings during November. (Both price
indices are released with a 2-month lag.) - The inventory of homes for sale remained the same for new homes
but fell for existing homes. The listed inventory of new homes for
sale, at 461,000 units at the end of December, was unchanged m/m
but was 18.5 percent higher y/y. That inventory would support 9.0
months of sales at the current sales pace, down from 9.2 months in
November due to an increase in sales. Available existing homes for
sale, at 970,000 units in December, declined 13.4 percent m/m but
were 10.2 percent higher y/y. That inventory represents a 2.9-month
supply, down from 3.3 months in November. The long-term average
for months’ supply of homes on the market is 6.0 months. - The U.S. homeownership rate fell slightly in the fourth quarter.
The national homeownership rate decreased to 65.9 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2022 from 66.0 percent the previous quarter but
was up from 65.5 percent a year ago. The historic norm since 1965
is 65.2 percent. (Source: Census Bureau) - Forbearance on mortgage loans remained the same. The MBA
Forbearance Survey shows the share of homeowners with mortgages
in forbearance was 0.70 percent (351,000 households) in December,
the same as in the previous month, but down from 1.41 percent
(705,000 households) one year ago. The forbearance rate was only
0.25 percent of all home loans in the beginning of March 2020,
before the economic effects of the COVID pandemic began to be felt. - Housing insecurity due to the pandemic remains elevated but
has improved. HUD analysis of the Census Household Pulse Survey
(Week 53: January 4-16, 2022) shows that approximately 11.4
percent, or 5.25 million, renter households were behind on rental
payments, an improvement over 15.1 percent, or 6.96 million,
households one year ago. An estimated 4.6 percent, or 2.13 million,
renter households feared eviction was imminent in the next
two months, down from 7.1 percent or 3.17 million a year ago.
Under Treasury’s Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, an
estimated 2.84 million renters have applied for and received rental
assistance. Approximately 5.57 percent, or 4.59 million, homeowner
households were behind on their mortgage payments in January, an
improvement over 6.66 percent, or 5.50 million in January of 2021.
An estimated 1.12 percent, or 890,000 homeowners, feared
foreclosure was imminent in the next two months. - The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) continued to ease, reaching
its lowest level since September. The 30-year FRM reached an
average weekly low in January of 6.13 percent the week ending
January 26, 2023, down from the weekly low in December of 6.27
percent and the lowest average weekly rate since last September
(6.02 percent). The highest average weekly rate during that time
frame was 7.08 percent in October and November. The mortgage
rate was 3.55 percent one year ago. (Source: Freddie Mac)