Author Archives: BEBdata

BK Climbing in 2019

Is the trend of declining bankruptcy filings coming to an end?  There are some key indicators that suggest it.

A 2019 report from the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) indicates that consumer bankruptcy filings are on track to increase notably for the first time in years. The ABI shows that total U.S. bankruptcy filings increased 3% in July from the previous July; consumer bankruptcy filings increased at the same 3 percent rate year-to-year, with 61,025 consumer filings in July 2019, up from 59,110 in July 2018. Consumer bankruptcies also rose about 5 percent month to month from June to July 2019 (from 58,003 to 61,025).

The New York Post noted that if the trend continues, the overall total of [personal and business] bankruptcies is on pace to hit 796,000 which far exceeds last year’s totals.

Data from the ABI suggests that household debt is roughly $14 trillion, which is $1 trillion more than the 2008 Great Recession peak.  Credit card debt is $1 trillion and also exceeds the 2008 peak, which could make households more likely to turn to bankruptcy as a means of relief moving forward.

3rd Quarter Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Report

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (Bureau) released the 3rd quarter consumer credit trends report (qCCT), which describes how the volume and types of bankruptcy filings have changed throughout the period 2001 – 2018, which includes the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) and the Great Recession.

The report analyzes data from the Bureau’s Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a longitudinal, nationally representative sample of approximately five million de-identified credit records maintained by a nationwide credit reporting company. The report focuses on consumers who filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 13 bankruptcy between 2001 and 2018. Under a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, a debtor’s non-exempt assets are liquidated in order to repay creditors and the remaining debt is generally discharged. Under a Chapter 13 bankruptcy, debtors enter into a repayment plan to repay a portion of their debt.

Key findings include:

  • From 2001 – 2004 about 75 percent of personal bankruptcy filers used Chapter 7. BAPCPA, which took effect in October 2005, restricted access to Chapter 7 by establishing a means test for those with income above a certain limit. This created a rush to file before BAPCPA took effect and increased the share of Chapter 7 filings to 80 percent of all personal bankruptcy filings in 2005. In 2015 – 2018, with the effects of the Great Recession fading, Chapter 7 filings appear to have stabilized at about 63 percent of personal bankruptcy filings.
  • Bankruptcy petitions generally result in a discharge or dismissal. A dismissal occurs when the debtor does not meet the requirements set by the court. Nearly all Chapter 7 filings result in a discharge of debt, which takes about four months. Less than half of Chapter 13 filers complete their repayment plans and receive a discharge.
  • Median credit scores of Chapter 7 and 13 filers one year prior to filing increased after BAPCPA but declined starting in 2010 possibly because filers experienced a negative financial shock during the Great Recession which lowered credit scores.
  • On average, Chapter 7 and 13 filers had more than twice the mortgage debt during the Great Recession than in the periods before and after. This is consistent with the financial shock of the recession causing more homeowners to file for bankruptcy.
  • Median credit scores increase steadily from year-to-year after consumers file a bankruptcy petition. Median scores for Chapter 7 filers recover more quickly than those for Chapter 13 filers possibly due to the much quicker and more likely discharge of Chapter 7 filings. Both Chapter 7 and 13 filers who filed in 2001 – 2004 received a second shock in the form of the Great Recession which slowed the recovery in median credit scores.
from https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/new-report-explores-trends-consumer-bankruptcy/

Mortgage Debt Tax

For homeowners who lost a tax break on mortgage debt that was forgiven after foreclosure, Declaring bankruptcy may be a last-ditch option.

If suddenly faced with potentially tens of thousands of dollars of IRS debt, filing bankruptcy is an incentive that might not be considered otherwise.

For a decade prior to 2018, individuals who had mortgage debt forgiven or canceled because they lost their primary residence through a foreclosure or a short sale could exclude up to $2 million of that amount from their taxable income.

The provision expired at the end of 2017, along with dozens of other temporary tax breaks. And now with Congress’s attention to end-of-the-year priorities, the likelihood of renewing those tax perks in the near term is fading.

Taxpayers can potentially turn to tax relief under other parts of the tax code. Individuals who are insolvent -they have proved to the IRS that their liabilities exceed the value of their assets—or are in bankruptcy can exclude canceled debt from their taxable income. That can prevent them from having to pay taxes on tens of thousands of dollars in additional income, maybe more.

Taxpayers will have to consider whether the tax savings outweigh the negatives. In bankruptcy, for example, individuals risk losing certain “non-exempt” assets that the court can sell to pay back creditors.

Timing is another important factor. Individuals should file for bankruptcy before tax is assessed because there are limitations and more complicated rules for discharging tax debts according to Geoffry Walsh, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center.   This opportunity may have already passed for taxpayers with canceled or forgiven mortgage debt who had tax assessed in 2018.

Walsh noted that in bankruptcy individuals discharge more than just the debts associated with their mortgage. So they could have other types of debt—credit card debt, medical debt, etc.—that they may have otherwise found a way to pay if it weren’t for the massive tax bill on their forgiven mortgage debt, he said.

Renewing the tax break would be better for taxpayers, the court system, and the IRS than killing it permanently and pushing people into bankruptcies that otherwise wouldn’t happen, said Julia Gordon, president of the National Community Stabilization Trust, which works to restore vacant and abandoned properties.

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Plastic Just Keeps Going

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the past six-weeks, we reviewed major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#6 Plastic Just Keeps Going

“More consumers than ever before are carrying a credit card, as issuers provide greater financial inclusion,” TransUnion reports. Card credit saw seven quarters of significant growth into 2018. Part of this reflected a balancing by issuers, according to Paul Siegfried, SVP and Leader of the credit card line of business. The lenders were granting cards to more subprime borrowers, but managing the credit limits more tightly. In 2019, TransUnion expects more emphasis on issuing cards to prime consumers, to fine-tune credit quality.

Marketers will have their work cut out here, both in promoting cards as well as other kinds of consumer credit that can compete with cards.

Today’s card product designers can twirl pricing, rewards, and payments dials to vary the offers made for new card accounts. As a result, “consumers have more choices today than they have seen in a couple of decades,” says Siegfried.

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Point of Sale Lending

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the next six-weeks, we’ll review major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#5 Point of Sale Lending

Building a marketing plan for digital lending has multiple facets. One early decision that Martin says lenders must make is who their ideal personal loan candidate is. Another key aspect is building repeat customer business. For that, attention must be paid to the post-approval digital experience.

According to Martin, another wrinkle is that traditional lenders are exploring ways to put their products right at the point of sale, embedding them in some fashion with the purchasing process. A model being looked at is that of Affirm, which makes installment loans for purchases at the digital point of sale. (Affirm works with fintech ally Cross River Bank, which books the loans.)

Martin says additional firms have started up in this space. One is Bread, which also works with Cross River Bank. Another is GreenSky Credit, a fintech which specializes in point of sale home improvement and healthcare finance, among other needs, in partnership with multiple banks.

“Co-branded deals like that are hot,” says Martin.

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Unsecured Personal Loans

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the next six-weeks, we’ll review major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#4 Unsecured Personal Loans in Digital Channels 

Unsecured consumer lending has had growing appeal to banking providers, and more of it may be executed through fintech partnerships. In late October 2018, for example, HSBC Bank announced that it would use Amount, a tech platform from online lender Avant, to lend to consumers digitally.

“The U.S. unsecured personal loan market is growing at 20% annually, surpassing $125 billion in balances,” says Pablo Sanchez, Regional Head of Retail Banking and Wealth Management for HSBC for North America.

Sanchez says that millions of consumers need loans for unexpected expenses, debt consolidation, or home improvements. The Avant platform can get funds to approved borrowers as soon as the next day.

TransUnion predicts that unsecured personal loans from all types of lenders will rise to an all-time high of $156.3 billion by the end of 2019.

“Originations will remain at healthy levels across all risk tiers due to more lenders participating in the personal loan market,” says the credit bureau.

“We see the continued benefit of lighter-touch regulation,” says Jason Laky, SVP and Leader, Consumer Lending. “Personal loans have reemerged as a staple of the American consumer’s financial portfolio.” Laky says that many of these unsecured loans are offered by non-bank fintech lenders that make it much easier for consumers by offering an online application processes.

Lane Martin, Partner at CAPCO, who recently headed a report on the subject, says the speed of obtaining credit also appeals to consumers. In addition, unsecured loans can sometimes be cheaper than credit cards. For traditional lenders, using digital lending to build connections to consumers can pay off in later cross sales, the report points out.

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Auto Lending

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the next six-weeks, we’ll review major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#3 Auto Lending: More Informed, Less Understanding

A mix of economic trends will impact auto lending. Rising tariffs and a preference for SUVs and hybrids will bump up pricing and impact affordability. Low unemployment and rising Gross Domestic Product will support continued growth and positive credit performance.

Overall, the auto finance market continues to show signs of health and growth in many ways.

Auto shopping and auto lending processes have grown more transparent as more and more resources can be accessed on the web. But some of the information consumers think they are armed with is misleading or plain wrong. For example, the credit score methodologies used by auto lenders and auto dealers differs from many of the scores that consumers obtain from websites. This confuses the process. Clearing up that confusion is another job for bank and credit union marketers.

Another new factor is alternative credit data — tapping nontraditional sources of payment information to help judge creditworthiness. Use of utility bill payment patterns and the like is becoming more common among lenders, especially non-bank auto finance companies.

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Tap Home Equity Loans

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the next six-weeks, we’ll review major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#2 Tap Home Equity to Replace Slumping Mortgage Lending

Rising home prices and rising interest rates have depressed mortgage applications and originations in the last couple of quarters.

CoreLogic reports that U.S. homeowners with mortgages have seen their home equity increase by 9.4%, year over year, as of the third quarter of 2018. That comes to $775.2 billion that can be tapped via home equity lending. CoreLogic says that the average homeowner gained about $12,400 in equity in the first three quarters of 2018.

HELOCs and home equity loans are a business that institutions can build on top of their mortgage portfolio, making it easier to find prospects. For those who can qualify, home equity credit is typically the lowest-rate way to borrow.

However, one result of the past financial crisis, according to Joe Mellman, SVP and Leader of TransUnion’s mortgage line of business, is that “we have a half-generation of consumers who have little knowledge of home-equity credit.” Between lower levels of equity and tightened credit standards, for many, he explains, home equity borrowing wasn’t an option.

So herein lies a challenge — and opportunity — for bank and credit union marketers. “There’s a ten-year gap in education about home equity credit,” says Mellman, “and it’s going to take a while to get filled.”

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AI Powered Lending

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the next six-weeks, we’ll review major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#1 AI Powered Consumer Lending

Fintech lenders are making inroads into banking markets by harnessing advanced analytics and non-traditional data as they automate and fine-tune underwriting processes. There’s no reason traditional lenders can’t follow suit, using artificial intelligence and data analytics to find prospects, evaluate creditworthiness, and monitor and manage the loan portfolio.

While trying not to interfere with marketplace forces bringing evolution of financial services, regulators have concerns as AI assumes a larger role. Regulators will be expecting to see the appropriate controls in place to be sure that AI doesn’t produce unintended consequences for lenders or borrowers.

AI has the potential to expand the availability of consumer credit by evaluating factors that go beyond traditional credit metrics. AI also has the potential to allow creditors to more accurately model and price risk, and to bring greater speed to decisions.

AI approaches are not free of bias simply because they are automated and rely less on direct human intervention. Algorithms and models reflect the goals and perspectives of those who develop them as well as the data that trains them and, as a result, AI tools can adopt the biases of the society in which they were created.

Financial marketers can help avoid such problems through the insights they have on their institutions’ markets and outreach.

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