It’s interesting to see the resilience of the US economy during the first half of the year, especially considering the expectations of economists who anticipated a recession. The second half of the year however, may present some challenges. Federal Reserve policymakers are indicating their intention to continue implementing interest rate hikes, which might introduce some volatility.
Although inflation rates are gradually declining, price pressures persist, and the Fed has suggested that benchmark interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period. Banks are likely to continue tightening lending standards in the coming months, making it more challenging and costly for households, to secure funding.
Consumer debt delinquencies have risen across various categories. It’s crucial to consider these trends in the broader context of credit conditions.
Many analysts no longer predict an imminent recession. Growth prospects have slowed, and persistent inflation is eroding purchasing power, particularly for less affluent consumers who are relying on credit card debt. Households are depleting the cash reserves they accumulated during the pandemic, which will have an impact on corporate growth prospects.
Overall, while the economy is not on the brink of a recession, slower growth and economic challenges lie ahead, driven by factors such as inflation, tight lending standards, and rising consumer debt.