Category Archives: Blog with BEBdata

The Fast Slow Auto Market

This year, the auto industry will grow 2.0% to $1.299 trillion, the slowest growth rate since at least 2011. Growth will flatten through 2022, according to eMarketer’s latest US retail forecast.

Based on an article by eMarketer,  that says that US light vehicle sales have been off to a slow start this year. Cindy Liu, forecasting analyist said that will contribute to the slowdown in the overall US retail market. Auto buyers remain hesitant to purchase new vehicles amid uncertainty surrounding the economy and rising interest rates.

The auto industry represents 23.7% of all US retail sales, making it the largest retail sector. As a result, it has a large impact on the aggregate. eMarketer says that total retail sales in the US will grow 3.0% in 2019 to $5.475 trillion. Because the auto industry represents nearly one-quarter of total US retail, any growth or contraction will have an outsized effect.

32% of Chapter 7 bankruptcies carry student debt

According to a new LendEDU study, 32% of consumers filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy carry student loan debt. Of that group, student loan debt comprised 49% of their total debt on average.

As of 2019, student loan debt is at an all-time high with a national total of $1.5 trillion. According to Student Loan Hero, the average student-loan debt per graduating student in 2018 who took out loans was $29,800.

The LendEDU data shows the effects of the growing burden of student loan debt. Coupled with a high cost of living and the fallout of the recession, student loans make it harder for millennials to save and put them financially behind — to the point where they may need to declare bankruptcy to be able to pay them off.

 

BK is going gray

The social safety net for older Americans has been shrinking for the past 20 years or so. Reduced income, and increased healthcare costs, are now financial risks associated with aging. A new trend is emerging, older Americans are increasingly likely to file consumer bankruptcy. Using data from the Consumer Bankruptcy Project, the SSRN (Social Science Research Network) reported finding more than a two-fold increase in the rate at which Americans aged 65 and over file for bankruptcy.  Also reported, an almost five-fold increase in the percentage of older persons in the U.S. bankruptcy system. The magnitude of growth in older Americans in bankruptcy is so large that the broader trend of an aging U.S. population can explain only a small portion of the effect. The SSRN data indicates that older Americans report they are struggling with increased financial risks, namely inadequate income and unmanageable costs of healthcare, as they try to deal with reductions to their social safety net. As a result of these increased financial burdens, the median senior bankruptcy filer enters bankruptcy with negative wealth of $17,390 as compared to more than $250,000 for their non-bankrupt peers. For an increasing number of older Americans, their golden years are fraught with economic risks, the result of which is often bankruptcy.

Read more here.

BK Climbing in 2019

Is the trend of declining bankruptcy filings coming to an end?  There are some key indicators that suggest it.

A 2019 report from the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) indicates that consumer bankruptcy filings are on track to increase notably for the first time in years. The ABI shows that total U.S. bankruptcy filings increased 3% in July from the previous July; consumer bankruptcy filings increased at the same 3 percent rate year-to-year, with 61,025 consumer filings in July 2019, up from 59,110 in July 2018. Consumer bankruptcies also rose about 5 percent month to month from June to July 2019 (from 58,003 to 61,025).

The New York Post noted that if the trend continues, the overall total of [personal and business] bankruptcies is on pace to hit 796,000 which far exceeds last year’s totals.

Data from the ABI suggests that household debt is roughly $14 trillion, which is $1 trillion more than the 2008 Great Recession peak.  Credit card debt is $1 trillion and also exceeds the 2008 peak, which could make households more likely to turn to bankruptcy as a means of relief moving forward.

3rd Quarter Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Report

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (Bureau) released the 3rd quarter consumer credit trends report (qCCT), which describes how the volume and types of bankruptcy filings have changed throughout the period 2001 – 2018, which includes the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) and the Great Recession.

The report analyzes data from the Bureau’s Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a longitudinal, nationally representative sample of approximately five million de-identified credit records maintained by a nationwide credit reporting company. The report focuses on consumers who filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 13 bankruptcy between 2001 and 2018. Under a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, a debtor’s non-exempt assets are liquidated in order to repay creditors and the remaining debt is generally discharged. Under a Chapter 13 bankruptcy, debtors enter into a repayment plan to repay a portion of their debt.

Key findings include:

  • From 2001 – 2004 about 75 percent of personal bankruptcy filers used Chapter 7. BAPCPA, which took effect in October 2005, restricted access to Chapter 7 by establishing a means test for those with income above a certain limit. This created a rush to file before BAPCPA took effect and increased the share of Chapter 7 filings to 80 percent of all personal bankruptcy filings in 2005. In 2015 – 2018, with the effects of the Great Recession fading, Chapter 7 filings appear to have stabilized at about 63 percent of personal bankruptcy filings.
  • Bankruptcy petitions generally result in a discharge or dismissal. A dismissal occurs when the debtor does not meet the requirements set by the court. Nearly all Chapter 7 filings result in a discharge of debt, which takes about four months. Less than half of Chapter 13 filers complete their repayment plans and receive a discharge.
  • Median credit scores of Chapter 7 and 13 filers one year prior to filing increased after BAPCPA but declined starting in 2010 possibly because filers experienced a negative financial shock during the Great Recession which lowered credit scores.
  • On average, Chapter 7 and 13 filers had more than twice the mortgage debt during the Great Recession than in the periods before and after. This is consistent with the financial shock of the recession causing more homeowners to file for bankruptcy.
  • Median credit scores increase steadily from year-to-year after consumers file a bankruptcy petition. Median scores for Chapter 7 filers recover more quickly than those for Chapter 13 filers possibly due to the much quicker and more likely discharge of Chapter 7 filings. Both Chapter 7 and 13 filers who filed in 2001 – 2004 received a second shock in the form of the Great Recession which slowed the recovery in median credit scores.
from https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/blog/new-report-explores-trends-consumer-bankruptcy/

Mortgage Debt Tax

For homeowners who lost a tax break on mortgage debt that was forgiven after foreclosure, Declaring bankruptcy may be a last-ditch option.

If suddenly faced with potentially tens of thousands of dollars of IRS debt, filing bankruptcy is an incentive that might not be considered otherwise.

For a decade prior to 2018, individuals who had mortgage debt forgiven or canceled because they lost their primary residence through a foreclosure or a short sale could exclude up to $2 million of that amount from their taxable income.

The provision expired at the end of 2017, along with dozens of other temporary tax breaks. And now with Congress’s attention to end-of-the-year priorities, the likelihood of renewing those tax perks in the near term is fading.

Taxpayers can potentially turn to tax relief under other parts of the tax code. Individuals who are insolvent -they have proved to the IRS that their liabilities exceed the value of their assets—or are in bankruptcy can exclude canceled debt from their taxable income. That can prevent them from having to pay taxes on tens of thousands of dollars in additional income, maybe more.

Taxpayers will have to consider whether the tax savings outweigh the negatives. In bankruptcy, for example, individuals risk losing certain “non-exempt” assets that the court can sell to pay back creditors.

Timing is another important factor. Individuals should file for bankruptcy before tax is assessed because there are limitations and more complicated rules for discharging tax debts according to Geoffry Walsh, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center.   This opportunity may have already passed for taxpayers with canceled or forgiven mortgage debt who had tax assessed in 2018.

Walsh noted that in bankruptcy individuals discharge more than just the debts associated with their mortgage. So they could have other types of debt—credit card debt, medical debt, etc.—that they may have otherwise found a way to pay if it weren’t for the massive tax bill on their forgiven mortgage debt, he said.

Renewing the tax break would be better for taxpayers, the court system, and the IRS than killing it permanently and pushing people into bankruptcies that otherwise wouldn’t happen, said Julia Gordon, president of the National Community Stabilization Trust, which works to restore vacant and abandoned properties.

Read more by clicking here.

Plastic Just Keeps Going

Six Major Trends in Lending for Financial Marketers this Year

The forecast for most forms of consumer credit is good. Lending volume, growth in balances, and overall performance look upbeat for the year ahead. Banks and credit unions will try new marketing strategies, explore new products, and experiment with new technologies. Over the past six-weeks, we reviewed major trends in consumer lending that financial marketers should watch closely.

#6 Plastic Just Keeps Going

“More consumers than ever before are carrying a credit card, as issuers provide greater financial inclusion,” TransUnion reports. Card credit saw seven quarters of significant growth into 2018. Part of this reflected a balancing by issuers, according to Paul Siegfried, SVP and Leader of the credit card line of business. The lenders were granting cards to more subprime borrowers, but managing the credit limits more tightly. In 2019, TransUnion expects more emphasis on issuing cards to prime consumers, to fine-tune credit quality.

Marketers will have their work cut out here, both in promoting cards as well as other kinds of consumer credit that can compete with cards.

Today’s card product designers can twirl pricing, rewards, and payments dials to vary the offers made for new card accounts. As a result, “consumers have more choices today than they have seen in a couple of decades,” says Siegfried.

Read more here